A new central air system in a Chapel Hill house costs $6,000 to $16,000 in 2026. Where a quote falls in that range depends on what is being replaced, the size and efficiency of the new equipment, and how much work the ductwork needs.
| Job | Typical price |
|---|---|
| Heat pump and air handler | $6,000 to $12,000 |
| AC and gas furnace | $8,000 to $16,000 |
| AC condenser and matching coil | $4,500 to $8,500 |
| Ductless mini-split, one zone | $3,500 to $7,000 |
Why prices went up in 2025
On January 1, 2025, EPA rules under the AIM Act ended the manufacture of new split AC and heat pump systems that use R-410A refrigerant. Manufacturers moved to R-454B and R-32 and raised prices to cover redesigned coils and valves. A new outdoor unit now almost always needs a matching new indoor coil, which adds to what used to be a condenser-only swap.
Some R-410A equipment built before 2025 is still on the market. The EPA removed its installation deadline for that stock in May 2026, so a technician may quote an R-410A system at a lower price. It is a legal install, and the trade-off is that R-410A gets more expensive to top off every year as production winds down.
What changes the price
- A 2-ton system for a 1,200-square-foot condo costs less than a 5-ton system for a 3,500-square-foot house.
- The Southeast efficiency minimum is 14.3 SEER2, and moving to 16 to 18 SEER2 or a variable-speed system adds $1,000 to $4,000.
- An air handler in a tight attic or crawlspace takes more labor than one in a closet or basement.
- Replacing or resizing ducts adds $2,500 to $7,000.
- Add-ons like a new thermostat, a surge protector and a float switch each add to the total, along with permit fees.
How to compare two quotes
Line the quotes up by model number. One brand at one SEER2 rating can come in several product lines at different prices, and the model numbers show whether two quotes are for the same equipment. Check that both include the permit and removal of the old unit. Compare labor warranties in years, since a repair in year two is billed at full price once a one-year warranty ends.
Rebates and credits
The federal 25C tax credit, which covered 30 percent of a qualifying heat pump up to $2,000, ended for systems installed after December 31, 2025. Check with your electric utility for current rebates on high-efficiency heat pumps, and ask the technician about manufacturer promotions, which usually run in spring and fall.
For a written quote from a licensed technician, call (980) 245-1226 or read more about system replacement.