When replacement makes sense
Many HVAC technicians use a rough test: multiply the age of the system by the repair price. If the result is above $5,000, replacing is usually the better spend. A 14-year-old heat pump facing a $1,800 compressor repair scores $25,200 on that test.
- The system is more than 12 to 15 years old
- It needs a compressor, an outdoor coil or an indoor coil
- You have paid for more than one major repair in two years
- It uses R-22 refrigerant, which has not been produced or imported in the US since 2020 and is expensive and hard to find
- Some rooms never reach the thermostat setting
What goes into the price
Size is measured in tons of cooling. A 2,000-square-foot house in Chapel Hill typically uses a 3 to 3.5 ton system, but the right size depends on insulation, windows, shade and ductwork as well as square footage. Ask for a Manual J load calculation, which is the industry method for sizing a system to a house.
Efficiency is rated in SEER2. North Carolina falls in the Department of Energy's Southeast region, where new home-sized central air systems must meet at least 14.3 SEER2. Moving up to 16 or 18 SEER2 adds $1,000 to $3,000 to the price and lowers cooling bills, and the payback depends on how hard you run the system.
Refrigerant changed in 2025. New split systems now use R-454B or R-32 in place of R-410A under the EPA's phasedown of high-warming refrigerants. A new outdoor unit almost always needs a matching new indoor coil for the new refrigerant, which is part of why replacement quotes rose in 2025 and 2026. In May 2026 the EPA dropped its deadline for installing R-410A systems built before 2025, so some technicians still have that older stock and can quote it at a lower price. Ask which refrigerant a quote uses, since R-410A will get more expensive to service as production winds down.
Typical costs
| Job | Typical price |
|---|---|
| Heat pump and air handler | $6,000 to $12,000 |
| AC and gas furnace | $8,000 to $16,000 |
| AC condenser and matching coil | $4,500 to $8,500 |
| Gas furnace only | $3,500 to $7,500 |
| Ductless mini-split, one zone | $3,500 to $7,000 |
| Crawlspace duct replacement | $2,500 to $7,000 |
Getting a good quote
A written quote should name the brand and model numbers of the outdoor and indoor units, the SEER2 rating, the tonnage and the labor warranty in years. It should also say whether the price includes the permit, a new thermostat, a new drain pan and hauling away the old equipment. North Carolina requires a mechanical permit for a system replacement, and the licensed technician pulls it.
Questions
How long does installation take?
A straight swap of an outdoor unit and air handler usually takes one day. Adding ductwork or moving equipment to a new spot can take two to three days.
Is there a federal tax credit for a new heat pump?
The federal 25C credit for heat pumps ended for equipment installed after December 31, 2025. Ask your power company about current rebates and ask the technician about manufacturer promotions, which change through the year.
Should I replace the AC and furnace together?
If both are more than 12 years old, usually yes. They are sized and matched to each other, and a new AC paired with an old furnace blower often falls short of its efficiency rating.